“Chucheng Feng, founding partner at Plenum.ai: “Faction is an oversimplified term to define the very intricate and complicated relationship among three rivaling groups of political elites. ‘Network’ better defines political elites’ relationships with superiors, peers, and subordinates.”
New York Times
“A lot of the loans should have higher interest rates that should reflect the correct risk,” said Chen Long, a partner at Plenum, a Beijing economic analysis firm.
Wall Street Journal
There are some signs that pessimism is growing. Feng Chucheng, an analyst with Plenum, a research firm, told clients in a note Monday that the continued disruption to the work environment in China could drive down first-quarter GDP growth to 2% or even into negative territory.
Despite such warnings and the seemingly harsh sentence for Jiang, Chen Long, partner at Beijing-based research firm Plenum, said death sentences with two-year reprieves were typical in corruption cases involving similar amounts of money. “It is unusual to see death penalties [carried out] these days,” he added.
“Bankers are now in demand, as local governments are increasingly exposed to financial risks,” said Chucheng Feng, a partner at Plenum, an independent research platform in Hong Kong. “These ex-bankers and regulators are given the task of preventing and mitigating major financial risks.”
Chen Long of Plenum, a consultancy, thinks China’s growth could slouch to 2% year-on-year in the first quarter, its weakest in decades, down from 6% in the final quarter of 2019. But he expects a strong rebound when the country gets back to normal.
Chucheng Feng, a partner in the independent research firm Plenum, says over-centralization of power in China’s political system means policy can move slowly: “It takes time, province to province, to comprehend what Xi Jinping is talking about. Especially lower-ranking officials, they don’t have incentives to work on their own, because the risk is if they are at odds with central policy, from central decision making, they may be purged.”