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Plenum NotesPolitics and Policy
May 6, 2022

Provincial Appointments Up For Grabs

26 provinces have installed new provincial party secretaries since 2020; they will serve as the central-local ligaments during Xi’s third term.
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Markets and FinancePlenum Notes
May 3, 2022

China Caught Up in Covid Again

All indicators have pointed to a much more substantial deterioration in April. China’s situation is unlikely to normalize in May, making it very difficult to hit the target.
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Markets and FinancePlenum Notes
April 26, 2022

The ‘Authoritative Person’ or Just China’s Top IR Manager?

Liu He remains very influential, but bearish sentiment can hardly change unless real changes materialize or the top leader speaks out.
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Markets and FinancePlenum Notes
April 23, 2022

Time For A Weaker Renminbi

Long USD/CNH is an attractive bet now, as most indicators suggest that the RMB should weaken much more.
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RECENT RESEARCH

April 21, 2022 in Markets and Finance, Plenum Notes, Politics and Policy

Unpacking China’s Antitrust Reviews

Foreign firms continued to receive more scrutiny than Chinese peers, especially in the semiconductor industry, as Beijing attempted to secure a stable supply.
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April 19, 2022 in Markets and Finance, Plenum Notes

Counting the Cost of COVID

April will be even worse than March, and the economic pain will last longer as the country struggles to control the highly transmissive variant.
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April 14, 2022 in COVID-19, Plenum Notes, Politics and Policy

How China Manages Covid Control Costs

Chinese authorities are battling the spiraling medical costs of covid while rushing to contain the spread of the omicron variant.
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April 11, 2022 in Plenum Notes, Politics and Policy

China, EU Look to Manage Downside Risks

The EU has acted less aggressively than the US, but the two are moving closer; China is unlikely to retaliate unless they cross the red lines such as Taiwan.
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April 6, 2022 in Plenum Notes, Politics and Policy

The “Central-Local” Dynamic in China

We explain how local governments function, how Beijing governs local governments, and what has changed over the years.
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April 6, 2022 in COVID-19, Markets and Finance, Plenum Notes, Politics and Policy

Shanghai and the Future of Zero-Covid

China will only let up on Omicron under two scenarios, both unlikely for now; enormous economic damage will lead to more policy easing on housing.
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