The Pompeo-Yang meeting is an attempt by Beijing at managing U.S.-China relations from further deterioration, but it will not de-escalate the conflict.
It is unlikely for Washington to end its other “special treatments” for Hong Kong because it hurts the Americans even more.
Beijing bought much fewer goods from the U.S. in Q1, making it impossible to meet the targets written in the phase-one deal.
The global public relations campaign is meant to build up empathy and support for China’s political system.
While the COVID-19 outbreak is drawing all the attention in the market, the phase-1 trade deal between China and the U.S. officially went into effect on 14 February. China was on track to fulfill its commitments, mostly related to regulatory reforms. But it is impossible for Beijing to deliver the total purchase volume for 2020 thanks to the U.S. travel ban as well as shrinking Chinese demand.
For the United States, the major gain is China’s commitment to purchase more American goods. Based on the agreement, the annual export of goods and services from the US to China should increase to $263bn in 2020 and $310bn in 2021, and 80% of the increase would come from goods.
For the United States, the major gain is China’s commitment to purchase more American goods. Based on the agreement, the annual export of goods and services from the US to China should increase to $263bn in 2020 and $310bn in 2021, and 80% of the increase would come from goods.
The trade war between China and the US has lasted for over 18 months and this has caused damage. China has suffered, but it is not losing very big yet. In fact, its current account surplus rebounds in 2019 and is on track to hit over $200bn (1.5% GDP) for 2019, defying speculations that the country was about to fall into current account deficit.
The US Congress is paying significantly more attention on China and the stance is increasingly hawkish with bipartisan support. Following the recently passed bills on Hong Kong, the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act (UHRPA) will likely pass tomorrow. we expect more bills to become law in 2020 on Taiwan and 5G. These will irritate Beijing but have little impact on the Chinese economy.