Tariffs between the US and China have ballooned in recent days, but it seems more likely now that the two sides will start talking to each other.
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Beijing has retaliated against Trump’s latest tariff hike with a basket of measures and vowed to provide greater support to the economy.
Trump has announced a major new tariff package, including a 34-ppt hike on China; the US also revoked the de minimis treatment for Chinese shipments.
The USD/CNY spot rate has been quite stable over the past two months despite higher tariffs from the US, largely due to a weak USD.
Beijing has expressed opposition to CK Hutchison’s plan to sell its Panama ports, and we doubt the deal can proceed as originally planned.
China has announced multiple retaliatory measures in response to the US’s latest 10-ppt tariff hike on Chinese goods.
Changes in the US-China trade portfolio between 2017 and 2024 highlight the shifting of some US supply chains away from China.
Trump has outlined his vision for US-China investment decoupling in a recent policy memo.
Recent developments suggest that engagement is not a current priority for either side, reducing the chance of a Xi-Trump summit in the next few weeks.
Beijing has fought back against Trump’s tariffs with a package including partial tariffs, export controls, and company-level probes.