China will only let up on Omicron under two scenarios, both unlikely for now; enormous economic damage will lead to more policy easing on housing.
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Provincial party secretaries are the most crucial ligaments between central and local governments, and the most important local enforcers of central policies.
Countries’ commitments on strengthening energy security amid the Ukraine crisis will make international cooperation on climate policies more difficult.
China’s covid cases hit two-year-high and Beijing has doubled down on zero-covid policy with strict measures enforced in all affected cities.
Beijing faces tough choices between various diplomatic goals, with risks of collateral damage and loss of reputation for not opposing Putin.
The latest surge of covid cases in Hong Kong will not change China’s zero-covid policy for the special administrative region, let alone the mainland.
Chinese provinces lowered GDP growth targets by 0.7pp on average, and we expect the central government to set the national growth target at “around 5.5%”.
The Sino-Russia joint statement refuted Anglo-Saxon values but bore few surprises; Beijing does not want NATO expansion or war in Ukraine.
Xi Jinping has re-invented the party apparatus to fit his vision, making the Party and government inseparable.