Industrial value-added and retail sales looked fine in Jan-Feb, while exports were quite weak.
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Market interest rates have gone up despite a supposed loosening of monetary policy, and the PBOC has stopped buying bonds; sentiment has improved.
Hangzhou’s “six little dragons” have become part of the national public discourse, granting the city a new reputation as a tech haven.
The GDP target is unchanged from last year, while the projected aggregate deficit will be 10% of GDP, the largest since 2020.
China has announced multiple retaliatory measures in response to the US’s latest 10-ppt tariff hike on Chinese goods.
Changes in the US-China trade portfolio between 2017 and 2024 highlight the shifting of some US supply chains away from China.
Trump has outlined his vision for US-China investment decoupling in a recent policy memo.
Most of China’s provinces set 2025 GDP growth targets at 5% or above, suggesting that the national target will remain at “around 5%”.
Chinese leaders held the most high-profile meeting with private businessmen since 2018 to show support for the private sector.
Recent developments suggest that engagement is not a current priority for either side, reducing the chance of a Xi-Trump summit in the next few weeks.