China’s economy sent mixed signals in October; retail sales and industrial value-added growth beat expectations, but momentum slowed.
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Industrial profits appear to be recovering, and private fixed asset investment is likely to follow suit next year.
China’s capital account saw a large deficit due to an unprecedented decline of FDI and an increase of ODI.
China has lowered its market entry barriers, but slowing growth and rising risks have also made it less attractive to investors.
This year’s Central Financial Work Conference struck a more cautious tone than the last such meeting, held in 2017.
Exchange rate defense and a more sanguine economic outlook may be behind the higher market rates, and the new issuance may drive them up further.
The US has escalated its export control regime again, dealing a blow to China’s AI development.
Housing and exports are still down but their declines have slowed, and consumption has seen an ongoing recovery.
Companies are attempting to dodge restrictive trade policies by increasing their outbound investment and moving operations overseas.
Consumption saw the best holiday recovery so far this year, but the housing market declined even further, dragged down by tier-3 cities.