Growth next year will continue to be held back by the real estate sector and weak external demand for Chinese products.
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China’s leaders vowed at this year’s CEWC to offer more policy support for the economy in 2024.
An analysis of the housing market shows massive regional disparity; prices have fallen by over 30% in some cities but remain largely unchanged in others.
The RMB has gained 2% against the USD over the past few days as the USD fell against most major currencies.
China’s oil demand has turned out much stronger than expected and may end up accounting for 75% of global growth in 2023.
China’s economy sent mixed signals in October; retail sales and industrial value-added growth beat expectations, but momentum slowed.
Industrial profits appear to be recovering, and private fixed asset investment is likely to follow suit next year.
China’s capital account saw a large deficit due to an unprecedented decline of FDI and an increase of ODI.
This year’s Central Financial Work Conference struck a more cautious tone than the last such meeting, held in 2017.
Exchange rate defense and a more sanguine economic outlook may be behind the higher market rates, and the new issuance may drive them up further.