Liu He remains very influential, but bearish sentiment can hardly change unless real changes materialize or the top leader speaks out.
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Long USD/CNH is an attractive bet now, as most indicators suggest that the RMB should weaken much more.
Foreign firms continued to receive more scrutiny than Chinese peers, especially in the semiconductor industry, as Beijing attempted to secure a stable supply.
April will be even worse than March, and the economic pain will last longer as the country struggles to control the highly transmissive variant.
China will only let up on Omicron under two scenarios, both unlikely for now; enormous economic damage will lead to more policy easing on housing.
China’s worst-ever covid wave, with Shanghai at the epicentre, leads to more lockdowns as Beijing sticks to “dynamic zero-covid.”
China’s covid cases hit two-year-high and Beijing has doubled down on zero-covid policy with strict measures enforced in all affected cities.
Authorities are allowing localities more room to relax real estate, carbon, and energy policies while sounding less hawkish on anti-trust and capital.
