China will only let up on Omicron under two scenarios, both unlikely for now; enormous economic damage will lead to more policy easing on housing.
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China’s worst-ever covid wave, with Shanghai at the epicentre, leads to more lockdowns as Beijing sticks to “dynamic zero-covid.”
China’s covid cases hit two-year-high and Beijing has doubled down on zero-covid policy with strict measures enforced in all affected cities.
Authorities are allowing localities more room to relax real estate, carbon, and energy policies while sounding less hawkish on anti-trust and capital.
The next and perhaps final window for the PBOC to cut policy rate is 15 March as the Federal Reserve is starting a rate hike cycle next month.
The RMB remains very resilient despite PBOC efforts to rein the currency in as monetary policy divergence between China and the US grows ever starker.
China is almost certain to post record-high foreign direct investment figures for 2021 amid strong profits and a resilient supply chain.
We try to address seven major questions for Chinese economy in 2022, including Covid policies, consumption, regulatory crackdown, monetary policy, real estate, exports, and energy.