From 14 to 22 May 2019, People’s Daily, the single-most important mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), published a series of nine commentaries written by “Zhong Sheng” (钟声, “Bell Tone” by literal translation), which is a pseudonym used by People’s Daily’s International Department since November 2008 for commentaries on China’s position and proposition on major international issues and China-related topics. Below is a list of all nine commentaries with their original Chinese title, the English translation of title, and the original People’s Daily web links. We’ve summarized the main arguments of each commentary, which may be provided upon request. Contact us or send us an email at team[at]plenum.ai to receive the full analysis. Date/Page/Section Chinese Title/English Translation/Link 14 May 2019 Page 3 Left Section 谁在“为赋新词强说愁”(钟声)——“美国吃亏论”可以休矣 Who Is “Feigning Sorrow to Compose New Verses”?—Argument of United States Being Taken Advantage of Should Stop by Now http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2019-05/14/nw.D110000renmrb_20190514_1-03.htm 15 May 2019 Page 4 Left Section 不要陶醉于自欺欺人的“胜利”(钟声)——“加征关税有利论”可以休矣 Do Not Be Enchanted by Self-Deceiving “Victory”—Argument of Additional Tariffs Being Good for United States Should Stop by Now http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2019-05/15/nw.D110000renmrb_20190515_3-04.htm 16 May 2019 Page 4 Right Section 谁在“出尔”,谁在“反尔”(钟声)——“中国出尔反尔论”可以休矣 Who Is Contradicting and Backtracking Itself?—Argument of China Being Contradicting Should Stop by Now http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2019-05/16/nw.D110000renmrb_20190516_3-04.htm 17 May 2019 Page 3 Left Section 从来就没有什么救世主(钟声)——“美国重建中国论”可以休矣 There Is No Supreme Savior—Argument of United States Rebuilding China Should Stop by Now http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2019-05/17/nw.D110000renmrb_20190517_3-03.htm 18 May 2019 Page 3 Left Section 欲加之罪,何患无罪(钟声)——“中国强制转让技术论”可以休矣 If You Want to Incriminate Someone, You Can Always Create a Suitable Crime—US Should Stop Fabricating ‘Forced Transfer of Technology’ Accusation http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2019-05/18/nw.D110000renmrb_20190518_3-03.htm 19 May 2019 Page 3 Left Section 香者自香,臭者自臭(钟声)——“中国技术有害论”可以休矣 Fragrant People Will Always Be Fragrant, While Stinky People Will Always Be Stinky—Stop Bogus ‘Harmful Chinese Tech’ Narrative http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2019-05/19/nw.D110000renmrb_20190519_3-03.htm 20 May 2019 Page 3 Left Section 捕风捉影者,风必摧之(钟声)——“中国盗窃知识产权论”可以休矣 Those Who Speak or Act on Hearsay Evidence Will Eventually Be Destroyed by Hearsay—US Lies of China’s IP Theft to Be Blown Down http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2019-05/20/nw.D110000renmrb_20190520_3-03.htm 21 May 2019 Page 3 Left Section 不要逆历史潮流而动(钟声)——“对华文明冲突论”可以休矣 Never Go Against the Trend of History—Argument of Clash of Civilization with China Should Stop by Now http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2019-05/21/nw.D110000renmrb_20190521_3-03.htm 22 May 2019 Page 3 Left Section 轻舟已过万重山(钟声)——“中国退步论”可以休矣 The Canoe Has Surfed Past Thousands of Mountains—China Never “Backtracks” and Will Never Stop Efforts for Development http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2019-05/22/nw.D110000renmrb_20190522_3-03.htm Analysis: “Nine commentaries” hold special significance in China’s propaganda front—56 years ago, People’s Daily published a series of nine commentaries on Soviet Union from 1963 to 1964, at a time when China and the Soviet Union were engaged in tense conflicts and debates over Nikita Khrushchev’s revisionist approach to Communism. The series of nine commentaries from 1963 to 1964 became CCP’s conclusion of the stalemate of Sino-Soviet relationship during Khrushchev’s rule of Soviet Union. Two specific reasons make us believe that the nine commentaries published in May 2019 are comparable to those published in 1963 and 1964. First, the subtitles of all nine commentaries follow the same format, with each one addressing a specific point of the current US-China conflict—this is exactly the same as the nine commentaries published in 1963 and 1964. Second, before the nine commentaries on Soviet Union, then-First Secretary of CCP Central Committee Secretariat Deng Xiaoping led a CCP delegation to Moscow in June 1963 to negotiate with Khrushchev. The negotiation did not bear any meaningful fruit, while Khrushchev publicly fought back against CCP’s 25 Points on General Roadmap of International Communism Movement, a message relayed during Deng’s June visit to Moscow, by issuing a public letter in July 1963. Khrushchev’s public slapping China became the final trigger of the nine commentaries. The nine commentaries published on May 2019 is under similar circumstances, where Chinese Vice Premier Liu He just finished an unsuccessful trip to the United States, before President Trump slapping China on the face by announcing the 25% tariff and adding Huawei onto Commerce’s Entity List. Therefore, we highly recommend you to consider these nine commentaries as China’s position papers on China-US relationship, at least in the most immediate future before Trump administration demonstrates any intention to go back to the negotiation table and shows Trump’s commitment to hold his words.
News: CCP Central Committee Organization Department Deputy Chief Zhou Zuyi (周祖翼) was promoted to State Commission Office for Public Sector Reform (SCOPSR) Chief today. Quick Take: A Zhejiang local, Zhou’s political career started in Shanghai Tongji University after getting his PhD degree, and was appointed in 2011 as Tongji’s Party Secretary (vice-ministerial level). He was further promoted to Central Organization Department in 2014, as the Director of the No.2 Bureau of Cadre Administration, one of the most powerful bureaus in the department that took main charge of personnel-related issues. In October 2016 he was again promoted to Central Organization Deputy Chief. Aged 54, Zhou will now become the youngest among all 16 chiefs of committees and offices under CCP Central Committee. Interestingly, the career trajectory of Zhou’s predecessor Zhang Jinan (张纪南) looked very similar to Zhou’s—Zhang was also central organization deputy chief before being appointed SCOPSR chief, and was concurrently appointed Minister of Human Resources and Social Security (MOHRSS) in March 2018.
News: The State Council has decided to form a leading group on employment (国务院就业工作领导小组) on 22 May, and has appointed Vice Premier Hu Chunhua (胡春华) as its chief. Main duties of this leading group include coordinating national employment work; researching major issues in employment; working on related regulations, plans and policies etc. Quick Take: Employment has evidently become China’s “political red line”—the country has vowed to create more than 11 million urban jobs and maintain the unemployment rate of 5.5% as its primary goals in 2019. However, as tensions with the US and the continuing domestic economic downturn have further complicated the situation, this leading group is created to prevent employment from worsening off and causing potential disruptions that could damage social stability. This fatal task is assigned to Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, who has previously headed multiple leading groups dedicated to CCP’s key initiatives, including State Council Leading Group of Poverty Alleviation and Development and Central Rural Work Leading Group.
News: Inner Mongolia Vice Chairman Zhang Shaochun (张韶春) was appointed the region’s CCPSC member and Secretary-General today. Quick Take: Zhang started his political career in 1983 in central government, and had since served in multiple ministries and commissions, but mostly taking the secretary position. In 2005 he was transferred to his home province Anhui to become Anhui NDRC Deputy Head, and has since been promoted within the province until January 2018, when he was reshuffled again to serve as Inner Mongolia Vice Chairman. Interestingly, Yang Weidong (杨伟东) was the other Vice Chairman appointed along with Zhang in 2018, who also got a new appointment in March as Inner Mongolia CCPSC member and Organization Chief. Upon Zhang’s appointment today, he will now take up the position left by Luo Yonggang (罗永纲), who was transferred to Hubei as a CCPSC member and Political and Legal Affairs Commission Chief on 28 April.
In May 2019, a number of officials promoted to vice-provincial ranking in January 2018 during the first wave of vice-provincial-level promotion after 19thParty Congress have been promoted into provincial CCPSCs nationwide. In mid-May 2019, Fujian Vice Governor Zheng Xincong (郑新聪) was appointed Fujian CCPSC member and Fujian CCP Committee Secretary-General, replacing former Fujian CCP Committee Secretary-General Liang Jianyong (梁建勇), who had been appointed Fujian Propaganda Chief earlier. On 22 May 2019, Inner Monglia Vice Governor Zhang Shaochun (张韶春) was appointed Inner Mongolia CCPSC member and Inner Mongolia CCP Committee Secretary-General, replacing former Inner Mongolia CCP Committee Secretary-General Luo Yonggang (罗永纲), who had been appointed Hubei CCPSC member and Political and Legal Affairs Commission Chairman in April. Similarly, the aforementioned Li Dianxun was promoted to vice-provincial level in January 2018 and has recently been promoted to CCPSC. The officials promoted into vice-provincial positions around January 2018 are in their mid-50s—most of these officials were born around 1962 to 1965, making them eligible to serve at least two terms on vice-provincial level, if not promoted further to full-provincial level. What we are witnessing is the gradual replacement of officials born in 1950s by these officials born in 1960s and this process will likely span through the rest of 2019.
News: SASAC Party Secretary Hao Peng (郝鹏) is concurrently appointed SASAC Chairman today, filling up the vacancy left by Xiao Yaqing (肖亚庆), who departed for another post as SAMR Chief yesterday. Xiao is to succeed Zhang Mao (张茅), who has reached the mandatory retirement age of 65. Quick Take: Hao and Xiao shared office for two and a half years at SASAC since December 2016, but with its dual-leadership system, Hao used to be mainly in charge of party-related issues and Xiao took care of more administrative and operational matters, such as overseeing the SOE reforms. Upon Hao’s appointment today, he is now lifted to be in full charge of SASAC. Moreover, Hao Peng has extensive experience working in local governments, having served in Gansu, Tibet, and Qinghai respectively from 1999 to 2016. SASAC under his leadership will be better positioned to enable partnerships between central SOEs and local governments.
Incumbent State Asset Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) Party Secretary Hao Peng (郝鹏) takes Xiao’s SASAC Chairman position concurrently. On 21 May 2019, State Council appointed Xiao Yaqing as the new SAMR Director-General, replacing Zhang Mao, who is retiring due to age limit—Zhang was born in 1954 and has reached age limit set for full ministerial-ranking officials. Xiao’s SASAC Chairman vacancy has been taken concurrently by his colleague, incumbent SASAC Party Secretary Hao Peng. Zhang Mao is a well-connected princeling, whose father was one of the early-generation leaders of Xinhua News Agency’s HK Branch since early 1990s. Zhang’s father-in-law was Gu Mu, former Vice Premier of the State Council. Zhang was initially appointed SAMR Party Secretary in March 2018 when the SAMR was newly established, with Bi Jingquan (毕井泉) serving as its founding Director-General. Following the Changchun vaccine scandal of 2018, Bi resigned and Zhang took SAMR Director-General position subsequently. Xiao is a renowned reformer and a very capable SOE manager during his tenure as Chinalco Chairman, as well as during his latest tenure as SASAC Chairman. Yet, Xiao is known to be an outspoken advocate for stronger role of SOEs and state-owned assets in China’s economy—his latest appointment to SAMR will raise question in the market on the future trajectory of China’s market reform. Following the March 2018 restructuring of State Council, SAMR now combines the full or partial capacity of State Administration of Industry and Commerce (SAIC), MOFCOM, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and State Council Anti-Trust Commission. Xiao’s position will be critical in understanding China’s future approach to anti-trust review, and of course, its approach to foreign investment review, as China catches up with the United States on making SAMR into an agency with the mandate similar to that of CFIUS. Hao Peng is one of the defense technocrats that are in hot seats since Xi took power—Hao worked for 17 years in AVIC’s Lanzhou subsidiary before entering into the government. Currently, there are nearly a dozen officials of full ministerial/provincial ranking who have spent a significant amount of their career in China’s defense technology sector, including Heilongjiang Party Secretary Zhang Qingwei (张庆伟), Liaoning Party Secretary Chen Qiufa (陈求发), Guangdong Governor Ma Xingrui (马兴瑞), and Hunan Governor Xu Dazhe (许达哲).
News: Former China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chief Liu Shiyu (刘士余), who was transferred to All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives (ACFSMC) as Vice Party Secretary in January, turned himself in today to CCDI. Liu is now under investigation for violation of party displine and law. Quick Take: Liu had previously based his entire career in the financial sector—he spent ten years in PBOC and two years in Agricultural Bank of China, and was appointed CSRC chief in Feb 2016. In January this year Liu was replaced by Yi Huiman (易会满), and was transferred to ACFSMC, an institution established in the 1950s and now overseen by the State Council. Liu’s case is most likely related to the IPO of banks in his hometown Jiangsu Province and may have broader repercussions in the financial sector. Contact us for more in-depth analysis on Liu’s case. Fujian vice governor appointed secretary-general… News: Fujian Vice Governor Zheng Xincong (郑新聪) was appointed Fujian CCPSC member and Secretary-General today. Quick Take: A Fujian local, Zheng had been working for the province since 2001 and previously served in several prefectural-level cities. He was appointed Fujian Vice Governor in January 2018. Currently, Fujian is still lacking its Political and Legal Affairs Commissions Chief and Organization Department Chief.
Liu is the third full-ministerial-ranking officials under investigation in 2019, the second full-ministerial-ranking officials who surrendered to CCDI voluntarily, the other being former Yunnan Party Secretary Qin Guangrong (秦光荣), and the first incumbent Central Committee full member to surrender to CCDI voluntarily. There has been rumor on Liu being investigated by CCDI ever since he was removed from CSRC in January 2019 and appointed to All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives (ACFSMC) as Chairman. Since its founding in 1954, the state-owned ACFSMC has played an important role in China’s rural areas. As well as satisfying the daily demands and needs of rural residents, it has also provided Chinese farmers with agricultural products, including seeds, fertilizers, fuel and machinery services, while simultaneously helping them with transportation, packaging, marketing and the sales of their agricultural products via its enormous network. Yet, ACFSMC is largely a “retirement” place and many suspected Liu’s move to ACFSMC as a way for CCDI to fully investigate his wrongdoings in CSRC without his interference. Liu is potentially implicated for two reasons. First, Liu shared office with ousted Huarong Asset Management Co. Ltd. Chairman Lai Xiaomin (赖小民) for four years from 1998 to 2002 in People’s Bank of China (PBOC)—it is likely that Liu as CSRC Chairman did favor for Lai, who had run one of China’s biggest asset manager for a decade. Second, during Liu’s tenure as CSRC Chairman, which was known for harsh regulation on IPOs, dozens of urban commercial banks of Jiangsu province conducted IPO in China’s A-share. Liu is a Jiangsu native and this pattern was suspected by many as Liu’s favoritism over his home province.
On 17 May 2019, MFA’s Department of Asian Affairs Director Chen Xu becomes Chinese Ambassador to UN Geneva. Chen’s appointment has followed the pattern of the position—China has been appointing officials from MFA and Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) alternately to the position of Chinese Ambassador to UN Geneva. Chen’s predecessor to the position was Yu Jianhua (俞建华), who has been a career MOFCOM official and had been appointed China’s Trade Representative and Deputy Minister at MOFCOM a month ago. Yu’s predecessor to the position was Ma Zhaoxu (马朝旭), who was a career MFA official now serving as Chinese Ambassador to UN in New York City.