26 provinces have installed new provincial party secretaries since 2020; they will serve as the central-local ligaments during Xi’s third term.
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All indicators have pointed to a much more substantial deterioration in April. China’s situation is unlikely to normalize in May, making it very difficult to hit the target.
Liu He remains very influential, but bearish sentiment can hardly change unless real changes materialize or the top leader speaks out.
Long USD/CNH is an attractive bet now, as most indicators suggest that the RMB should weaken much more.
Foreign firms continued to receive more scrutiny than Chinese peers, especially in the semiconductor industry, as Beijing attempted to secure a stable supply.
April will be even worse than March, and the economic pain will last longer as the country struggles to control the highly transmissive variant.
Chinese authorities are battling the spiraling medical costs of covid while rushing to contain the spread of the omicron variant.
The EU has acted less aggressively than the US, but the two are moving closer; China is unlikely to retaliate unless they cross the red lines such as Taiwan.
We explain how local governments function, how Beijing governs local governments, and what has changed over the years.
China will only let up on Omicron under two scenarios, both unlikely for now; enormous economic damage will lead to more policy easing on housing.