Chen Long and Bo Zhengyuan discuss the recently released Q3 2023 economic data, US-China relations, and the forecast for the rest of the year into 2024.
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Housing and exports are still down but their declines have slowed, and consumption has seen an ongoing recovery.
Companies are attempting to dodge restrictive trade policies by increasing their outbound investment and moving operations overseas.
Consumption saw the best holiday recovery so far this year, but the housing market declined even further, dragged down by tier-3 cities.
Chen Long discusses China’s recent real estate policy easing, the surprising performance of the commodity market, and whether the economy is turning around.
The EU will soon launch an anti-subsidy investigation into EVs imported from China, which will likely result in price floors and tariffs next year.
Beijing followed through on its financial reform promises of 2013, but the results failed to make the system significantly more market-driven or efficient.
Higher commodity prices appear to herald the end of China’s industrial deflation woes, and the CPI is also poised to rise.
The US-China rivalry has evolved beyond the trade war into a new phase of intense geopolitical competition.
The release of the device will intensify US political pressure and will likely lead to attempts to tighten the export control regime against China.