Chen Long and Bo Zhengyuan discuss takeaways from the Central Economic Work Conference and US-China relations in the year ahead.
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New home sales showed positive growth for the first time since 2021, but retail sales growth slowed much more than expected.
China responded to the latest US measures with its own mineral export controls and opened an antitrust case against Nvidia.
China’s AI companies are under immense financial pressure due to limited funding and rising computational costs.
Trump has already signaled the beginning of a second US-China trade war by announcing his intent to impose a 10-ppt tariff hike on all imports from China.
The central bank may choose to pursue QE in the near future, as China’s interest rate is not much above zero.
Fewer exports to the US and a cheaper valuation may provide a bigger buffer for the RMB than it had in 2018, but the scale of Trump’s tariffs is key.
Executive actions will lead as Trump’s main policy tool for a trade war 2.0 with China, and the Republican Congress will swiftly follow up with legislation.
China’s internet landscape has been undergoing a rapid transformation to one with freer competition and more open collaboration.