The July Politburo meeting readout did not prioritize supply-side policies as much as some had hoped, and it implied there will be less demand-side support.
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In this chartbook, we walk you through the latest developments in the Chinese economy and offer our outlook.
Nvidia’s H20 chips are available for sale in China again; CEO Jensen Huang has been highly active in engaging with leaders in both the US and China this year.
China’s leaders have signaled dissatisfaction with extreme competition in some sectors, and the market expects some measures to be taken.
The Trump administration has taken several steps in recent weeks to place Chinese companies under greater scrutiny.
Exports and industrial activities outperformed again, while retail sales slowed in June; the housing market and deflation continue to be the biggest issues.
Trump has threatened more tariff hikes by 1 August, but markets believe it is another case of TACO.
China continued to consolidate its position as a key market for chipmaking equipment in 2024, but the outlook for 2025 is less optimistic.
The RMB has risen modestly against the USD in recent weeks due to the USD’s renewed weakness, but it still lags other currencies.